Toward sustainable port-hinterland transportation: A holistic approach to design modal shift policy mixes

Port-hinterland transport involves freight gathering and distribution between hinterland economies ports. It is responsible for a major portion of the negative externalities entire port-related logistic chain. This study proposes an integrated model framework to facilitate design modal shift policy mixes increase sustainable performance port-hinterland transport. The consists three parts: (1) econometric transform economic scenarios into changes in port throughput, (2) system dynamic estimate due (3) Monte Carlo simulation identify those with lower externalities. proposed methodology applied Qingdao Port its China. results show that growth will significantly raise throughput Four common instruments are considered, namely, internalization external cost (IEC)-based pricing, road construction, increasing railway service level, subsidy. mix’s efficacy reducing increases demand, but holistic effect mix than sum effects individual policies because these share goal facilitating shifts. simulations despite uncertainty prospects, better commonly include IEC-based pricing level. provides decision makers systematic making toward